ahs

Bad news

2011-02-01T16:21:00.000-08:00

I will no longer be posting anything weather on here unless it's in the south atlantic.

Oh, and I am posting this picture for another site.

Danielle is a hurricane!

2010-08-23T16:25:00.000-07:00

I really don't have that much time to go into detail. Heck, virtually noone sees my blog.

Tropical depression Five in the gulf

2010-08-11T07:17:00.000-07:00

From the new loops from NOAA, it appears that Tropical Depression Five has been created. It will not become a hurricane, but with another sudden storm in the season, I really hope that Alabama and Mississippi are ready. Honestly I don't think that it will do that much damage because of how it looks right now on NOAA's weather loops. I have a link to those webpages in the sidebar somewhere.

When I first saw it I wasn't even able to make out a storm in that mass of spinning cloud. I daresay it took me half-a-minute to find it's COC! (center of circulation) If it's that disorganized, I predict it will not get that strong.

Tropical storm Colin

2010-08-03T04:41:00.000-07:00

Colin

The fourth tropial storm of the year in the Atlantic has come. Usually it's a D storm but remember tropical storm Abrew (Anita) in the south atlantic. So I didn't skip a thing (except maybe the formation of the storm). This NOAA image has just revealed the sun on this system.

As of where it's going is uncertain, with my predictions take it just missing landfall seven days from now as a Category two storm, and NOAA's forecast taking Colin 100 miles east of that. But right now, NOAA's predictions seem wrong because it's already starting to slip south of the forecast 12 hour mark.

With the strength of the storm right now being 40 miles per hour, that is subject to change, being over warm waters of 28 degrees celsius. It's going to become 29 degrees celsius, so don't be surprised if it's a hurricane in any part of its lifetime.

Bonnie has made landfall

2010-07-23T08:06:00.001-07:00

In Miami Beach, a storm named Bonnie is making it's wrath, but only with 40 mph winds. I'm surprised if anyone dies, but not if there's injurys. This is still a pretty big deal for Florida, though. Exactly 24 hours ago, it was first recognized. This is so abrupt.

But even though the big shock, the storm has a 20 percent chance of dissipating.
A picture of the upper level divergence

The upper level divergence and lower convergence are very inequal. There's not much Lower level convergence, but upper divergence is different. This inequality could tear the storm apart. But that doesn't mean that Bonnie is nothing. Louisiana still needs to take cover.

Bonnie about to make landfall

2010-07-23T07:49:00.001-07:00

Tropical storm Bonnie is about to take landfall in Miami Beach, Florida.

Bonnie aproaches Florida

2010-07-23T06:02:00.001-07:00

This CIMSS image downloaded onto Google Earth indicates that Bonnie has finished it's wrath with Grand Bahama, and is now aiming at Florida. I am very worried on whether or not this will be destructive, though only a tropical storm. I do not think this will have a chance to make it to hurricane strength, though. I will be shocked if it does.

Deepwater Horizon has to take cover as well as Miami. The outer bands of Bonnie will most likely hit far north of the storm, hitting Gainsville with tornadoes at worst. Then the outer band will swing infront of the storm, hitting Deepwater Horizons very hard, with winds in excess of 60 miles per hour at most. There might be tornadoes there, too. Deepwater Horizons is starting the ultimate test of riding out the storm. Although, this very well may be our last Gulf storm of the season.

After Deepwater Horizons, New Orelands is next. It will already be weakened to about 45 miles per hour, though, so the storm shouldn't swallow the city as with Katrina and Gustav.

Take cover!

Bonnie

2010-07-22T19:54:00.001-07:00

This image of Tropical Storm Bonnie (lower right) is an image from cimss, which I used for Google Earth.

A lot of models forecast for no landfall in Florida. I respectfully disagree, saying that Bonnie will landfall in Miami in ten hours or so. By 36 hours, Bonnie emerges, but only for another thirty six hours, calling for a maximum strength of just 55 miles per hour, a rather weak tropical storm.

Bonnie might test to see just how quick Deepwater Horizons can prepare. I personally hope that it doesn't get too hard, because it may very likely screw up the temporary fix in the hole, sending the Earth bleeding again.

I do think that because of the screwed oil rig, this season might be the most deadly long-term effective in Atlantic history. Just the third named storm (the first two Abrew (90SL) and Alex) is threatening BP.

Bonnie, though only having <5%>

Noone knows for sure. But if Bonnie really is gonna pick the world up and gonna drop it on BP's head, BP needs to put their helmet on. (Not literally.)

TD#3!

2010-07-22T08:50:00.000-07:00

Tropical depression three has formed in the Caribbean sea. I've been tracking the precursor to this storm for a week. It was just a lower level low with no upper or middle level winds. It was over cold waters in a dry enviornment. It's strange that it has come that far.
It was found by the center of circulation being smack-crap-that in the middle of a bahamian weather station. It's forecast is to travel over florida, into the gulf of mexico, and threatening deepwater horizions.
I will be going to the dentist. When I come back I'll give more info.

-Chief of W.A.H.A-

TD Two will (most likely) not be Bonnie

2010-07-08T10:31:00.000-07:00

Good afternoon. As we speak, Tropical Depression Two is taking landfall in Mexico at the same dang place that Alex landfalled. Will that area ever get a break?

Since this storm is now overland, it is very likely that it won't strengthen, but just to let you know that it might. There were two storms in the past three years that strengthened overland. I didn't cover either of them, but nonetheless both are shocking. In fact, they were both strongest overland; Erika of 2007 (landfalled with windspeeds of 40 mph, but three days after that it had winds over 65 mph over Oklahoma), and Fay of 2008 (landfalled with 50 mph but it strengthened to 65 mph just northwest of Lake Okeechobee). So don't say that it can't strengthen to a tropical storm.

The second tropical depression of the season

2010-07-08T06:33:00.000-07:00

An update is coming up on this almost out-of-nowhere storm. It may very well only last two more advisories, but nonetheless may become Tropical storm Bonnie.

Alex is now a hurricane-I post 15 hours later

2010-06-30T04:56:00.000-07:00

Does 15 hours count as a little after? I wanted to wait until Alex was a hurricane, but never figured I'd fall asleep before the 11:00 update. I figured that just in case that happened which it did, I would set my alarm clock to 5:45 to wake me up...the next morning...it didn't work, because it somehow got unpluged from the wall!!! So here I am, typing at 8:06 pm, I just got up...don't you dare talk to me until my second cup of coffee!

As for Alex, it is now looking strong, and it's speed...compared to how Alex LOOKS right now, it's speed is a puny 80 mph. But I hardly ever look at the pressure...maybe that will improve my forecast, even though I knew it would come just south of the Texas border.

I will send further updates at 11 o'clock in the morning, not just after that.

Alex about to become a hurricane

2010-06-29T12:53:00.000-07:00

Judging by this picture of Tropical storm Alex, the five o'clock update will check Alex as a hurricane. I'll check on him and make a post a little after five o'clock this evening.

Alex update

2010-06-28T11:00:00.000-07:00

Alex has current wind speeds of 60 mph.

A surprising fact about Alex: for the past four advisories, Alex has stayed nearly in the same place! But after eighteen hours of wobbling, Alex is finally going somewhere.

Oh, and as I found out; there is no state in Mexico called Rio Grande! Oops!

I'd say if shear is kow enough, then Alex might make it to category 3 strength by Thursday. But it won't make landfall until Saturday. Again, it will landfall south of Texas.

Alex is now in the Gulf of Mexico

2010-06-27T13:28:00.000-07:00

Now a tropical depression, Alex has made it across the Yucatan Peninsula. A lot of people say that it will hit Texas, but I don't think so. It did make a northwest turn, though, but that trajectory doesn't put any portion of Texas in Alex's crosshairs in ant way, except that some of the rain from Alex might fall on Texas, so it can still flood. But mainly, Rio Grande is under the most threat. But Alex won't landfall there until the morning of June 30. But still, to those Mexicans that can read english or know how to Google Translate, I repeat Rio Grande is in Alex's crosshairs. And Tropical depression Alex will strengthen into a category 2 hurricane or higher, and hit Rio Grande as a hurricane as well. Seek shelter.

Alex

2010-06-27T05:36:00.000-07:00

Tropical storm Alex has hit the Yucatan Peninsula, and apparently, crossing it fast! I'd say in the next six hours, Alex is already in the Gulf of Mexico. But it wont stay there for long.

Here's something I forgot to mention on my previous post; I am going to try to put my close up loop of Alex on Youtue. The image shown to the left is one of the frames; in fact, the most recent. The map still has crappy caliration, though.

Alex update

2010-06-26T14:39:00.000-07:00

Tropical storm Alex is now 60 mph. But as it nears landfall, it will loose strength, but at the 24 hour mark, it will cross into the Gulf of Mexico, and 36 hours in, it will once again become a tropical storm, and soon after, a hurricane. It might hit the Mexican state of Rio Grande, but it might hit more south. Wherever it does, it will in 3 days. Click on the image to enlarge.

Alex predictions. And one other thing...

2010-06-26T08:59:00.000-07:00

Click on the image to see where the numbers are.

As you can see here, Tropical storm Alex has formed, with current winds of 45 mph...

Aaaugh! Fail! It should say Alex is moving westnorthwest! I should edit that...nah. Too late.

So as you can see in the picture from Google Earth (doctored to see why I made the predictions) you can see arrows. The blue arrow shows that there will be some wind shear over the system after it transitioned into the Gulf of Mexico. This should cause Alex to only strengthen to 60 miles per hour. It might become a little stronger at 65 mph. The yellow arrows show how the lower level winds might merge a little where Tropical storm Alex is going. But I may have miscalculated the points in terms of speed, shown by the red arrows.

The twelve hour mark, which is in between point "s" and point "1," is the predicted point where Alex landfalls as a tropical depression. At 36 hours, in between point 1 and 2, Alex has crossed the Yucatan by now, and restrengthened to a tropical storm again. Alex's strongest point is at or just after point 2, 48 hours. By the time Alex reaches point 3, it has weakened to a tropical depression, and then the forecast stops.

As for the oil spill in the North Gulf of Mexico, many forecasters believe that Alex will screw up the oil by miles, causing countrywide damage. But Alex isn't going anywhere near that.

Wunderground.com says that the storm will reach hurricane status, but there's too much windshear. But Rio Grande still has to take cover, so too the Yucatan Peninsula and the south tip of Texas. Tropical storms can still do extensive damage.

Alex has formed

2010-06-26T08:09:00.001-07:00

Yes, Tropical storm Alex has formed in the north Caribbean sea, but a lot of websites say that the storm will travel northward enough to screw up the oil spill even more. I respectively disagree, as my forecast shows Alex slapping the yucatan peninsula as a tropical depression, and then instead of traveling nor'northwestward, taking a more westerly path, hitting either North Rio Grande or Southern Texas. (Rio grande is a state in mexico, F.Y.I.) I do not have pictures yet, but in an hour or two I'll give a more accurate forecast of where the storm is going to go. After all, I have changed my method of storm tracking. My method of seeing where storms will curve is based on looking at the directions of the winds of which the storm is already going towards. Then I'll see based on the winds around it whether or not those winds are go for change. After all, wind direction doesn't keep doing what it does forever, it eventually changes.

Metop has caught a storm:

2010-05-31T09:59:00.000-07:00

AAUGH! DATE FAIL!

2010-05-31T05:08:00.000-07:00

Tommorrow is june 1st. How epic of a fail!

Official start of the 2010 Hurricane season!

2010-05-31T04:42:00.000-07:00

Happy June 1st! Well, the record is now stopped, for three years now (2007, 2008, 2009) we had an early storm, but this time we have nothing early, if you do not count Tropical Storm Abrew, in the south atlantic. This is the atlantic record, right?

I can't show pictures right now, but I will probably start deleting the older posts if I run out of memory. It's just too much to... actually, maybe I'll delete the non-weather related stuff instead. Sorry for posting those cubing pictures...but I don't have a choice! I can't make another blog, I can't access the other ones, I have to do it on this one!

Hurricane Haven
I'll hopefully be part of the...do I bother saying it again? The title of the show is the title of this paragraph. It runs from 4pm eastern daylight time to 5pm eastern daylight time. For the confused, that's the time zone that New York is in. To tune in, just click the big button below. For further details, click the small button.
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As for activity in the tropics, there is not that much...

...sigh...

2010-04-08T10:56:00.001-07:00

another cube.

I have to post another cube.

2010-04-08T09:44:00.000-07:00

:-b

Abrew is "running" away

2010-03-11T05:06:00.000-08:00

so yeah,...this is the image of Abrew. Abrew is getting picked up by the jetstream, and is still a tropical storm, it's just minimal.

Abrew made the transition

2010-03-10T04:47:00.000-08:00

to a tropical cyclone this morning, and did it in bold style. This Ascat image (click to enlarge) reveals that the winds from Abrew are now closed completely, and the wind speed is still 45 mph. It is now moving away from Brazil, and from warm waters, so Abrew isn't going to be much longer.

Here's an update; NOAA has just named this storm 2 days ago as Tropical Storm 90SL. They've come up with their own naming scheme; to name the storm after the invest prior to the storm, and then remove the Q prefix (I thought it was X.) and put on SL at the back. That's strange...

Abrew set a record by the way... the first storm to have an invest prior to it with a Q, for the South Atlantic, because Q is a letter we don't usually use, as the South atlantic does not usually make tropical storms. It makes sense.

Subtropical Cyclone Abrew

2010-03-09T15:20:00.000-08:00

I can't believe it! There is a subtropical cyclone in the south atlantic that's forecast to strengthen to tropical status in a couple of hours. This storm is just a subtropical depression, but the naming scheme for this basin is to give names to all storms over 29 mph. The wind speed of this storm is 35 mph, so what would be a storm in the north atlantic of that speeed being a tropical/subtropical depression, is what would be a tropical/subtropical storm in the South Atlantic. Anyway, Abrew looks like it's going to become a tropical storm, but not a hurricane. Also, I am worried about fire damage from this storm. Subtropical Storm Andrea caused a ton of fire damage when it was close to land so that's why south Brazillians should stay alert. I will give more updates later.

Invests 90X and 91X

2010-03-08T05:27:00.000-08:00

Another invest has formed, so we have two things to watch out for. Let's go to 90X first, the storm of yesterday. It has surprisingly strengthened to having a 30% chance of cyclone formation. The jetstream...suddenly dissapears...so yet we have something else! Now there is invest 91X, which formed from an upper level low, and has joined with the other center of circulation (see yesterday's latest post) to actually have high odds of forming; a 50% chance.

90X is weakening

2010-03-07T17:09:00.000-08:00

I really think this storm is weakening. Sometime ago I found the center of circulation offset from the Invest. There is still some chance of development, but not that much. At best, it becomes a subtropical storm. As for the rest of the storm, it doesn't look like conditions are favorable but I suggested that there might be another center of circulation...okay I just looked at Ascat and as it turns out, there is. It's near 22 south 36 west, and it's not completely closed but it is getting there. It has maximum winds of 25 knots, and although under a moist enviornment with very warm waters, the wind shear is just too much for development. I'd take my guess back about the "Abrew" thing. I don't think there will be that much development. I will look at it by morning, but I'm sure there's just nothing to look at. Invest 90X is no longer,...but I'll update tomorrow just in case.

90X update

2010-03-07T11:35:00.000-08:00

...advisory #4 of Invest 90X...

...I've skewd the image a little from the image of this one eumetstat weather picture. It makes it a little more to scale. It even looks like a tropical storm doing this, even though it isn't yet, yet as in could be. The red circle shows the center of circulation while the blue arrows show the upper level winds. I have to say, it is getting a little bit more organized, although the percent chance of cyclone formation dropped a percent because of the windshear. (it's going a tiny bit southsoutheast at the moment, though it looks like a lot) It is starting to form into a tropical cyclone, it is a tad bit away from being warm cored. Right now, this is not a threat to any land, but cyclones in the south atlantic are rare, only seven happening in history, the latest being "uruguay" in January 2009 (i missed it.). There is an upper level just southwest of 90X, though, that doesn't agree with it. I'm guessing it's bringing a bit of shear in the area, but that doesn't prevent 90X from forming. It certaintly wasn't the case for Zeta, in 2005-2006, where the tropical storm thrived even in windshear of twenty five knots! Even more astonishing was Zeta was over waters so cold, I would walk away from my pool if it was that cold. It was...72 degrees?... whatever, it was cold. But if the precursor to TS Zeta could do it, then so should Invest 90-X. It's only over thirteen knots of windshear and over 85 degree waters.

This will be TD One X

2010-03-07T08:42:00.000-08:00

This storm has surprised me. It has gone from totally unorganized to looking like future Tropical storm Abrew. I have to say I'm baffled, and in the next 48 hrs, this storm has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone...
...stay tuned for more updates on 90X...

90x

2010-03-06T17:07:00.000-08:00

This is surprising; 90x now has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm! The jetstream, shown in blue, traveled downward south, and 90x north, so there's less wind shear now, there's no dust, it's over plenty of warm water, yep... this is the first time I use my South Atlantic Naming list...

...further updates will come later in the evening, sayonara until then, stay tuned...

Invest 90-X

2010-03-06T08:17:00.000-08:00

It has been forecasted that there is a tropical disturbance in the south atlantic right now. I don't have that good imagery available to track 90X, so I am stuck with nothing. I plan to get an image onto Google Earth, I mean the loop, of this storm so I can track it and put the video on Youtube if it turns into a tropical depression. It will be on the channel EpicAbrewFail, the exact same one as I mentioned with Epic Fail (well, actually, I had two blogs, we're the same person,). It has a lot of cubing videos there, too.

As with the prefix "X" for south atlantic storms, I didn't come up with that.

90X has been given a low (<30%)>

This is very offtopic from weather, but...

2010-02-02T16:58:00.001-08:00

I have to post images of cubes on here in order to post images on my Twistypuzzles.com account.

This is my Giant Crystal Cube.

Ida is a cat. 2!

2009-11-08T11:41:00.001-08:00

Okay, I think this storm is coming out of hand. Where it is now, most people predicted only 50 mph winds, but it is doubled that! With that, WAHA is predicting Ida to stay in the gulf of Mexico for three more days, until the front right next to it will sweep it across Florida. As it does, it will become extratropical. With that being said, get in mind that this is a slow storm. Starting from the southwestern caribbean, it took five days to get where it is now.

As it was crossing Nicaragua and Honduras, some of its clouds traversed eastsoutheastward into El Salvador. This caused major flooding there, and as many as 54 people are dead. If there's 54 there alone, plus those lost in other countries, plus the USA landfall to come, I wouldn't be surprised if Ida is a retired name by spring.

almost 4 hrs in now

2009-11-06T18:45:00.000-08:00

gettin hard

Now starting LTR

2009-11-06T16:21:00.000-08:00

LTR is the Liginiment Typhology Research. Okay, typhology is a made up word, but I see it as the study of tropical cyclones.
For 36 hours straight I will be using images of the atlantic, from Noaa, amd at the end I will put the images together and find a way to predict hurricanes two weeks into the future, being as accurate as today's 1 day forecast. This is the first of six times that this is hapenning, the next two? One's in december, the other in either march or april.

Ida forms

2009-11-04T17:40:00.001-08:00

Well, here it is. Ida has formed, and is threatening Nicaragua. I repeat, Nicaragua has a Tropical storm alert. You might want to plan where you evacuate; and fast if you haven't even started yet. Make sure you have 3 days or more of inperishable food and water. Also, if you are in the storm, and a person just happens to go through the window (from the other half, this only happens if the eye is over it and it moves away suddenly and gets caught in the wind), and has no pulse, it is possible to save that person with a defibrillator. Keep away from windows, because a window that is not covered by wood is asking for pricey fixes, and instant death. After Ida hits Nicaragua, there is also Florida on the line, possibly getting a maximal tropical storm or minimal hurricane. I repeat, Florida has a Tropical storm advisory. You might...the hell with it you don't want to hear it all again.
In case you're wondering why it doesn't look like anything that's going to affect Florida, it's because it's going sooooooo slow! By the way, I thank Noaa imagery for making it's picture available on google Earth possible.

Invest 94L

2009-10-20T18:31:00.001-07:00

centered in the image

ARE YOU ****ING SERIOUS?!

2009-10-05T16:10:00.000-07:00

Grace has formed-up there! I'd never thought it could happen under only 17 degree waters, which is terrible for tropical storms. It'll die off by morning (i think).

Tropics seem very quiet...

2009-10-03T20:47:00.000-07:00

I'm bored. Just in case you were wondering, there is a new fail site hosted by Epic Fail at http://youhavegotfail.blogspot.com

TD eight will dissipate, test on December 1

2009-09-26T18:29:00.000-07:00

On december 1st, I am going to risk my entire blog by creating a Youtube account. Also, TD8 has formed, but pay no attention, it will be gone by this morning.

Google Earth lied!

2009-09-13T12:46:00.000-07:00

I can't get the image up.
sorry

Meditteranean storm?

2009-09-12T15:58:00.000-07:00

On my next post, I will show an image of what I am talking about.

Fred is a cat. 3

2009-09-09T12:56:00.000-07:00

Major hurricane Fred is not a threat to land, but is still interesting to track.

Fred is NOT a cat 1

2009-09-09T03:58:00.000-07:00

Fred is now a cat 2 storm. Points are 6 hours apart. While Fred is moving NW at the moment, it will make a recurve to the WSW after three days or so. However, the upper part of the storm will go away, so I predict that it's not long until "storm go bye bye".

Fred

2009-09-08T18:25:00.001-07:00

Sorry that I couldn't give you an accurate forecast on the last post. Anyways, it is a tropical storm right now, of 70 mph.

Hours Strength

6 75

12 85

18 95

24 100

30 100

36 90

42 75

48 65

54 50

60 40

66 35

72 30

Fred

2009-09-08T14:13:00.001-07:00

96L has become Fred. I can't give an update in full to you right now, but I will give it to you in just a few hours. I don't think it will become anything that will threaten land, though.

96L and my youtube account problems

2009-09-07T05:20:00.000-07:00

96L has formed, and is looking very healthy as a storm, yesterday, anyway, If it does become a tropical storm, it won't get very far because of wind shear.

Also, a problem forms with Waha. It has to shut down eventually because it is so big. So, I am trying to make a new account on Youtube, so that I can post more things. I can even post the videos of my Google storm tracking. However, I need to verify my email adress. They were supposed to, but didn't, send an email to me to verify the account. So I checked Google help, and it showed me three possible solutions. 1 and 2 didn't help me a bit. 3 is the only possible answer left, but it might destroy this blog. Will it? Please post your answer on the comments section.

erika is dead, 94l alive, chance of youtube account thriving.

2009-09-04T18:51:00.000-07:00

94l is in the central atlantic, now rapidly strengthening. I'd say Fred will form from this system.

Also, I am back allowed on youtube, and I am running out of blog space, so in December Waha will shut down, and I will allowed to post on youtube, hopefully. I can put loops on that website, since I can post videos, but just in case, I am going to upload a video of Hurricane Bill if possible on this post.

Sorry, I can't.

erika forms and is starting to threaten Georgia

2009-09-01T15:18:00.000-07:00

Erika has formed and is going to actually have a shot at landfalling as a hurricane in Georgia. There is a lot of warm waters, however, it's not going to strengthen that much because of the windshear from Major hurricane Jimena. Another threatened areas include* Anguilla, Puerto ricco, D. Republic, the Turks, and the Bahamas.

*not limited to

Danny will cause a lot of flooding

2009-08-29T08:56:00.001-07:00

Tropical depression Danny has merged with a frontal system, and will pprobably be very dangerous for people in New England. Take extreme caution.

As for 94L, it has a seventy percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. In fact, I think it might be more than that. All it needs is to stick to having clouds, and to get stronger by just ten knots, and it will be a tropical storm!

Danny is almost gone

2009-08-29T05:04:00.000-07:00

There's not much to say about Danny, it was torn apart by wind shear, and 94L will probably become Erika. I'll make a post on 94L today.

Danny

2009-08-26T17:24:00.001-07:00

The huge area of showers and thunderstorms are actually Tropical storm Danny. Danny's path of where it will be, all computer models say it will be a fish storm, but I think there's a 20% chance of being driven into N. Carolina, as a strong tropical storm, or a weak hurricane. But if anything, Canada will have a huge storm coming it's way.

Danny

2009-08-26T14:29:00.000-07:00

Look at the link that leads you to the Noaa website, and click it. You will probably think that isn't a storm, but it is. Also, notice it is aimed for Florida, but it will recurve. Poor Canada, they have to face TWO storms in one year!

Bill has left us

2009-08-24T04:11:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, I went bodyboarding, and I have to say there was a lot of big waves. Bill has made waves 10 feet high, and I have to say it was awesome riding them. But in the Northeast, this means bad things. At least 25 people were killed, and this was also Bermuda's third wettest storm ever. So, this was a bad storm and I think Bill's name is going to be retired.

Bill slams Nova Scotia, Newfoundland is next

2009-08-23T17:35:00.000-07:00

If you log on to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-ir4.html, you will see Bill is about to pound Newfoundland as a hurricane. Newfoundland is not use to hurricanes because nothing has hit there in years, so this will be a wake up call. Bill has already sent 20 out to sea, and from them we can only expect the worst; death. A few might be safe, but that would be about it.

Hurricane Bill weakens

2009-08-22T07:32:00.000-07:00

I guess it was far away from Bermuda, but still dealt it woth some storm force winds. I hope that it was useful to heed the warnings that I gave. Canada is next, and will still bring some hurricane force winds. I repeat, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland has a Hurricane advisory. You might want to plan where you evacuate; and fast if you haven't even started yet. Make sure you have 3 days or more of inperishable food and water. Also, if you are in the storm, and a person just happens to go through the window (from the other half, this only happens if the eye is over it and it moves away suddenly and gets caught in the wind), and has no pulse, it is possible to save that person with a defibrillator. Keep away from windows, because a window that is not covered by wood is asking for pricey fixes, and instant death.

I will record the landfall of Bill on my computer, and at the end of the year, post it on Youtube (hopefully).

Bill narrowley missed

2009-08-21T05:07:00.000-07:00

Bermuda just barely missed Bermuda. So, if Bermuda isn't in the danger zone, then Canada is in it. Canada will likely get hit as a cat. 2 hurricane.

Bill very close

2009-08-19T10:53:00.000-07:00

Major hurricane Bill is still putting Bermuda at a high risk. I repeat, Bermuda has a Hurricane advisory. You might want to plan where you evacuate; and fast if you haven't even started yet. Make sure you have 3 days or more of inperishable food and water. Also, if you are in the storm, and a person just happens to go through the window (from the other half, this only happens if the eye is over it and it moves away suddenly and gets caught in the wind), and has no pulse, it is possible to save that person with a defibrillator. Keep away from windows, because a window that is not covered by wood is asking for pricey fixes, and instant death. An evacuation plan is a more necessary plan, though.

Bill will be a cat 5

2009-08-19T10:11:00.000-07:00

All the conditions are correct, and the closer Bill gets to Bermuda, the stronger it becomes. Which is bad for bermuda, because, well, obvious.

Bill is a cat 4

2009-08-19T03:57:00.001-07:00

Major hurricane Bill has really done it now. Sorry about all those Bermuda warnings, but I still think you'll get a lot of huge waves that could bring rip currents.

Major huricane now

2009-08-18T18:15:00.001-07:00

Hurricane Bill is no more; hello Major hurricane Bill. This major hurricane still has Bermuda in it's crosshairs. I repeat, Bermuda has a Hurricane advisory. You might want to plan where you evacuate; and fast if you haven't even started yet. Make sure you have 3 days or more of inperishable food and water. Also, if you are in the storm, and a person just happens to go through the window (from the other half, this only happens if the eye is over it and it moves away suddenly and gets caught in the wind), and has no pulse, it is possible to save that person with a defibrillator. Keep away from windows, because a window that is not covered by wood is asking for pricey fixes, and instant death.

Now that this is a Major hurricane, I think a lot of Bermudans have no choice, but to evacuate, or ride out the storm. I'd perfer evacuate, because this will be a cat. 4 hurricane hitting Bermuda. Be warned.

Solid eye

2009-08-18T17:11:00.000-07:00

The "All Google Earth" promise is officially broken, but I will do google earth every once and a while. Bill now has a solid eye, enabling it to even more rapidly strengthen. Again, it will hit Bermuda.

Bill strengthened but still not a cat. 3

2009-08-18T14:10:00.000-07:00

I am starting to think that there will be no landfall into bermuda. It has started to recurve already, and it's thousands of miles away. I'd still say that all that bermudans need to prepare for will be necessary, because it might be taking a straight path. A lot of hurricanes do this, catching a ton of people off guard. So, still be warned.

About to kick off the first major hurricane

2009-08-18T12:40:00.000-07:00

Bill looks like he is about to become a Cat. 3 hurricane. Remember, it's heading for bermuda.

Bill is huge

2009-08-18T08:01:00.001-07:00

Bill kinda looks like Andrew now, with that familar eye. Now that the eye is cracked open wide, it's strength can skyrocket. I think it will turn into a category 4.

Look!

2009-08-18T04:58:00.000-07:00

Hurricane Bill has formed an eye. This will allow it to strengthen a lot more quickly. Bret, a hurricane of 1999, is a good example. While it was forming, Bret formed an eye while it had 45 mph winds, causing ot to become a cat. 4 hurricane in less than two days. This danger was narrowly escaped, because so many people evacuated, and it landfalled as, well, actually, it was only because people evacuated. I expect this to hit bermuda.

Bill has strong winds

2009-08-17T16:51:00.000-07:00

Hurricane Bill: this is a deadly storm. This update is for starting to watch it rapid strengthen.

Big bad Bill is going to kill

2009-08-17T14:40:00.000-07:00

I really do feel guilty to not use Google Earth after I said I would; it's just that this is a stunning picture, and would be perfect to put on this blog. Also, by looking at this picture, I would say that it is going through a rapid deepening. A rapid deepening is a process in hurricanes where the strength goes up, and pressure goes down, but at the same time very abrupt. A good example would obviously be Major Hurricane Wilma, which went from a tropical storm from a Cat. 5 beast in just 24 hrs! Something else that is interesting is the fact that GDFL predicts this hurricane will become a Cat. 5 hurricane, and at the same time, predicts that it will totally "kill" Bermuda 48 hrs later. Bermudans, if you want to get prepared for this storm, just look at the update that I made previously. It will probably hit Bermuda in 114 hrs. or less, but I'd say the waters are too cold to support a category 5 hurricane. Maybe it will hit as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but it definitely won't be happening as a category 5.

Claudette

This storm has taken landfall on midight of last night. How much rainfall, I think there was at least six inches at the highest areas, probably a lot more, because the heavy thunderstorm activity has hung below the system since this storms' third advisory, which probably poured down on Franklin County, FL, with an estimated total of 8 inches. Unless it does any funky loops, I think we don't have to worry about this storm, as far as I know, but just in case, take caution.

Ana

Tropical depression Ana is struggling to stay alive. I'd say that it wouldn't last four more days, but it's remnants will sure rain down on the greater antillies.

That's all I have to post for now, I'll post again at 8 o'clock or 15 minutes antiprior to that time.

Bill the devil

2009-08-17T12:16:00.001-07:00

Bill is now a hurricane of 90 mph, and is strengthening rapidly. I expect it to turn into a category five and then come close to Bermuda, so close that it might actually hit bermuda and come ashore with 135 mph winds, Category 4 force. This will probably happen in about five days. If it does this, I will give hour by hour coverage. I repeat, Bermuda has a Hurricane advisory. You might want to plan where you evacuate; and fast if you haven't even started yet. Make sure you have 3 days or more of inperishable food and water. Also, if you are in the storm, and a person just happens to go through the window (from the other half, this only happens if the eye is over it and it moves away suddenly and gets caught in the wind), and has no pulse, it is possible to save that person with a defibrillator. Keep away from windows, because a window that is not covered by wood is asking for pricey fixes, and instant death.

Videos?

2009-08-16T19:10:00.000-07:00

sorry i can't post videos for this website. But starting October 20 I might be able to do that with youtube.

TS Claudette tricked us

2009-08-16T18:49:00.000-07:00

now heading WNW. Tried to get a loop up, try to find it on google videos.

ABC's

2009-08-16T13:06:00.000-07:00

I don't have time to make an update right now, so I'll just give you useful loops.
Here is the full atlantic loop, and these are floaters of the atlantic basin. Claudette has formed and is about to take landfall.

TD FOUR TOO?!?!

2009-08-16T04:47:00.001-07:00

Yes, the impossible happened; three storms at once, one of which is ANA! Well, I guess I said Ana first, so I'll tell you that in the next six days, it will likely take landfall in Florida as a tropical storm. But first, within the next 48 hrs, the upper lesser antillies will get battered a ton. But that will possibly only be a warm up call, because Bill will likely turn into a dangerous Cat. 2 hurricane. After that, Jacksonville's people need to evacuate a cat.3 storm. I am no extremely good expert, but, I'd say Jacksonville will be half leveled within ten days. And Four, it is likely to turn Claudette (I can't believe that's true, $%@# it). It will probably do minor amage, but might loop so be warned.

Bill Nye the science guy! LOL

2009-08-15T15:28:00.000-07:00

Not only have we Ana, but also have we Bill? Yes, that is true. I can't remember any season with the first named storm and the second named storm intercepting each other timewise. But that record has now been broken for the atlantic for sure for all I know. Anyway, the forecast for Ana goes first: every yellow line represents a day or so. This tropical storm is now making Tropical storm watches for the upper lesser antillies (places close to Antigua). And that all-ridiculous thing that happened; Bill. When it formed, it had me singin' "Bill Nye" for hours to come. Anyway, this storm is only 2 days behind Ana.

Remnants of TD2 become Ana

2009-08-15T03:30:00.002-07:00

The storms above: one tropical storm, and one invest (with the big L on it). Other people we're caught off guard with the center of the storm. But our motto is: we never stop tracking it until it is officially dead and gone! Possibly by the end of tomorrow, I can be allowed back on Youtube, enabling me to make forecasts there, too. Tracking this storm was tough when it was a remnant low, in fact, some points I am not even sure that they are correct. But it will have to do, besides, that storm could have had a "face storm" when a storm has two eyes instead of a cyclops storm, which is common in storms and has one eye. Anyway, the wave behind it might have a chance of hitting FL, I am nervous because I LIVE in florida (though I am not giving my name away, that will stay anonymous)! That might mean no more blog.
Well, I'll check in with these storms a little later in the morning toay.

TD2 dies but is regenerating

2009-08-14T17:06:00.001-07:00

Just letting you know. I am still tracking it's remnants.

2 dropped south, so is now a threat to the eastern states

2009-08-13T04:05:00.000-07:00

Tropical depression two has weakened a wee bit as it starts to head south. So as it heads south, it becomes more threatening to the caribbean sea, The bahamas, and Florida as well. We will be closely monitoring it's movement.
I'd say Invest 91 is about to form into something. Just before Two formed, it's precursor wave was extremely sloppy. So expect formation within the next 48 hrs.

2 before the 8

2009-08-12T15:49:00.000-07:00

Click on the link on one of the poevious links for floater one, which leads to TD two. I think a tiny bit of clouds dissapearring is a sign that it will strengthen again if it is over warm enough waters. So, by this evening, there will be a post on Ana, if it forms.

100th post means Google Earth from now on

2009-08-12T09:07:00.001-07:00

Here's to Google Earth's reliability. It is up and running again. Anyway, the forecast for the atlantic is that there will officially be Tropical storm Ana by 8:00pm eastern daylight time. It is not threatening any land right now, because it is forecast to become a fish storm.
The wave behind Td Two is invest 91, which the GFS thinks will just barely hit land at Cape Fear, NC, and Long Island, NY. If that happens, I will seriously owe them one. They have been crappy all year, but for this storm just might turn into a Cat. 3. I will post again after 2:00pm.

Two will become a TS guarantee

2009-08-12T07:50:00.000-07:00

If you click on the O, you will get Floater 1, which is monitoring Two right now.
O

TD Two still out there

2009-08-12T04:10:00.001-07:00

This storm has been stalling to get Ana. I am positive that in the next advisory, she will shine.

Ana is on the way

2009-08-11T05:16:00.001-07:00

Well, here it is; TD Two. Right now it's wind speed is 30 mph, traveling west. In my opinion, I think this storm could go many different ways. The best chance track it will take would probably be in this picture. I think over time, it will be a TS on the 2am advisory Wednesday, and then take a slight recurve to westnorthwest. Thursday on the 8 am advisory, we could see a hurricane. Friday at that same time, it will possibly be a category 2 hurricane, and start to track due west. 2am advisory on Saturday, Category three, and starts to take baby steps to the north with it's west track. At 8pm, it will probably weaken to a category 2 on Sunday. At 8am Monday, it will get downgraded to a Category 1, 2am Tuesday, it starts to head Northeast as it becomes a tropical storm. At 2am Wednesday, it will become a tropical depression, and become extratropical at 8pm that same day.

If this prediction is wrong, then it could go more north, or more south. Slightly north and it might slam Bermuda as a strong category 2. Keep in mind that about five days ago in the northwest pacific, a typhoon called Morakot totally crapped taiwan, and it was a category 2. So nobody should underestimate hurricanes; especially those of cat.2 or higher.

Slightly south, and Northeast coastal states (includes Newfoundland, New brunswick, Maine, New hampshire, any east coastal state more north than the Carolinas) could be left with a maximal storm or a minimal hurricane. Remember, Agnes was a tropical storm that hit the Northeast coastal states, and not only they, but Penn state (Pennsylvania) as well. Agnes did tremendous damage.

A lot south, and this storm won't be a cat 3 at maximum, but category 4 or 5 because of very warm waters. Remember Floyd, Hugo, and Andrew? They we're all monster hurricanes that hit the Southern coastal states (includes East Florida, Georgia, SCarolina and NCarolina). Andrew may have gone into the Gulf of Mexico and affected Louisiana, but the other two hurricanes that I mentioned would sound like what future Ana could do if it significantly goes more south than forecasted.

I'll keep you posted on TD Two, at 2pm.

99 is TD2...

2009-08-11T03:49:00.000-07:00

...and to think this is one hour before the next update! Two is heading westnorthwest, and I think this will possibly take the same path as Bertha did (except there will be no coriollis that made Bertha dip southeast). If this becomes TS Ana, I will track this thing the whole way!

99 & 90

2009-08-10T14:25:00.000-07:00

The two invests in the atlantic have we here today. There is 90L (left circle) and 99L (right circle). Let's start with 99L. As you can see in the image that I posted on this site (previous entry), it's starting to go into the images of Noaa. Along with that, convection isn't as strong as it was six hours ago. It is traveling west, and it has a 50% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone.

Now we go to the more interesting part; 90L. It was just declared today, and convection is rapidly firing like a minigun. As it is doing so, it is taking a westnorthwest track, doing so it is also strengthening over the warm waters of the Caribbean sea. Development of 90L, if any, will be slow within the next three days. If it does develop, however, then it will likely hit Cuba as a tropical storm. I am giving this system a 40% chance of development.

Barbados storm is 90L

2009-08-10T10:48:00.000-07:00

just letting you know.

In addittion to 99L...

2009-08-10T08:50:00.000-07:00

In the image below, there is a barbados storm.

99L has a high chance of forming into Ana

2009-08-10T03:43:00.000-07:00

I still can't show you a noaa image of 99, but I will just let you know the first named storm of the year will have a 75% chance of being 99L. According to the SST, thus storm will probably become a hurricane. The bad news, if it forms, is that it will likely hit land, because this storm is taking a similar path to either Maria (hit Iceland), Andrew (hit Florida), Hugo (hit Southern Carolina), or anywhere in between. There are rumors and yingyang and all this crap about "Bill" being behind it. I don't think bill will form. That's too far away anyway to even predict where a storm in the sahel is going, okay? If I am wrong, then might as well bang myself with a rubber chicken 1,000 times!

Invest 99 has formed

2009-08-09T09:17:00.000-07:00

If you look at http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR108/BW/FULLDISC/index.htm, you will notice a storm that is spinning over Cape Verde. That storm will likely become TD2 in the next 12 hrs. I will post again at 3:00 pm to keep you posted.

98L grows organize, 97L starts to die

2009-07-22T10:47:00.000-07:00

If you go to the noaa website, you'll notice there is 97, and 98. 98 is becoming more convective, and I'd say something is trying to form in 98. I'd give a 55% chance of something forming. As for 97, there's only a 25% chance ofr something forming there.

Forecasting news:

Noaa has been actually failing to pay very much attention to the atlantic. Case in point: Should-be-TD One.

For instance, shbtd one had a closed center of circulation, outstanding convection, was warm core, and most importantly, had winds of 35-40 mph, depr. strength-storm strength winds. In addittion to that, 97 had actually 50% chance of forming when it was declared, but Noaa declared that it would actually have no more than 29% chance of forming.

Also, Waha has changed it's name again to Weather in Atlantic Hurricane Association, since the A for Authority made no sense at all.

98L forms, 97L still here

2009-07-21T11:51:00.000-07:00

In this picture, it's easy to pick out the two disturbances, but which one is which? 97 is the bottom one, and the other wave, the one near the bahamas, is 98. Both are disorganized as it appears, but strangely, 97 has been through heavy shear and it isn't gone yet. In fact, more than half of the computer models say this will go on for more than two days.

But for 98, it just formed hours ago and I think despite it's age, will actually have the chance to strengthen to a tropical storm in three days or more. There is a 45% chance of this.

Back to 97, I have been watching it since it came off africa, but didn't post anything about it, spite the fact that it wasn't an invest, coupled with the fact that waves at this time of year peter out in the blink of an eye. I think this disturbance will not have the strength to upgrade to a tropical depression because of being overland for the next day, and three days later (when it's in less wind shear), it will probably have enough things needed to develop into a tropical depression. However, if this turns into a tropical storm I will be completely surprised.

But here's the thing, if Ana forms out of one of these storms, there definiteley won't be Bill, too.

I'll post again this evening.

97L

2009-07-18T09:18:00.000-07:00

Finally we have something to watch in the atlantic. This storm, also known as invest 97 has been showing a lot of convection during the past three days. Just use this map to see where the storm is going.

If it develops into a tropical system, I think the strongest it could possibly get is a trop. storm.

nothing in the atlantic, but...

2009-07-12T08:34:00.000-07:00

I really want to tell you about tele-existence. Before you get too bored and run away to a new site, i'll tell you that tele-existence is when someone can move a robot with their own movements, and yet that person feels like he/she is the robot. Mind controlled robots can go out of control with one little thought, making them harder to handle. With a tele-existence robot, dangerous tasks like space travel, protecting the city from criminals, or climbing trees cam be done without harm. This would also be good for putting micro-sized objects together, or using a micro-sized tele-existence robot investigate harmful bacteria such as swine-flu. I've been looking forever for anything on tele-existence that didn't require me to read a book. Only three websites took me to where I wanted, which, in my opinion is not enough of them. Only one showed an image of a tele-existence. In the next update I'll show you that image. It was only for the right arm and hand, but that is truly amazing enough to be encouraged to build something like that. Even before I saw that image, I really wanted to build something like that called the RY (robo you). So before I saw the image I thought it could be built by 2015, but because of that image, we might have the technology to build that by 2010! However, my plan was only to have tele-existence to areas above the waist, because if you have to use your legs, that gives an extremely small area for the RY to go because you might run into a wall, then the robot stops as well, you also might lose your balance. So to solve that problem, in the blueprint I plan to put wheels on to the RY, so that you can sit down, and moving your foot back and forth, or side to side, you can control the RY's movement. That way, there's a lot less chance of balance loss of the RY, and no chance of you stopping because interference in your enviornment amd the robot stopping as well when you do not want to do that.
But there's a problem with this. For example when you move your arms up, and there's no ceiling in your enviornment, and yet there is in the RY's enviornment, directly above, then if the arms of the RY touch the ceiling, and you keep moving your arms up, it could recalibrate itself. One possible solution to this would be putting motion sensors on the person moving the RY and the RY so that, in the situation I was typing about in the previous sentence, it can notice when the RY is recalibrating itself, then sends a signal the user to vibrate his legs so that person knows he/she is recalibrating the robot. That way he can know about this recalibration, and then move to another area so that the RY can calibrate itself back to it's origional calibration setting, or, so speaking, tha correct calibration.
If you already know about stuff like this, and would like to show me something that has to do with tele-existence, then show me your blog URL, and post something like the RY concept, because I would really like to see some more bots of tele-existence than just one. Seriously, this annoys me. Also, only post images about it, and if you do use video, don't use youtube, vimeo, newgrounds, or bing. I recommend to you that you use metacafe, if you can. But the whole general point is, please show me something just like the RY (hint: it's about tele-existence).

Cbs 11 forms, African dust storm

2009-06-22T11:34:00.000-07:00

That time of year is back; summer. For most kids, it is like a dream, but for meteorologists, it is the beginning of a nightmare. Storms start to brew, and there's a chance of people getting killed by hurricanes.

That won't stop us (even though cbs 11 has now formed. Because of land breezes during the night, the southern gulf of mexico has gone from quiet, to containing a system that looks like it's already a hurricane in just three hours. Even though, it still is not forecast to strengthen. There is a lot of wind shear. Right now, there is only an 11% chance it will develop into a depression, of that, 60% chance of Ana from this, and virtually no chance of a hurricane.

Cbs 10 is still brewing, though. However, it will have some time to dissipate.

Now, for the report on this dust storm. It's huge, and it will probably travel into spain.

Cbs 10 + equation for Averaged Direction Strength (ADS)

2009-06-18T17:00:00.000-07:00

There is an area of disturbed weather called CBS 10, which has a high chance; 60-70% that it will develop into a tropical depression.

However, if you look at QuikSCAT data, you will notice it doesn't look like a storm; just a bunch of lines with the top stronger than the bottom. The reason to this is simply because the storm is moving, not stationary. It's simple to figure out it's spin: the storm's strong end is 35 knots, weak end 10 knots, so if both ends were to be 35, weak end the other way, it would be 35. Take away ten from one end, and that brings it down five knots. Since 35 and -10 are 45 away from each other, that takes off 22.5 knots. 35-22.5=12.5, and you have it's strength. To find out the direction, well, it's 22.5.

Or, in other words:

35=s -10=w 45=d 22.5=D 12.5=e

s-w=d d/2=D s-D=e. Man I hate summer math! This is called the ADS equation.

The bottom line is Cbs 10 has a current strength of 12.5 knots, under shear of about 6 knots. It is under warm water of 30 degrees celsius, which is also 86 degrees celsius in, which is rather a warm eddy of oceanwater, so in the next 72 to 96 hours, development is expected. But at this time, it's not threatening land.

atlantic quiet, the gulf of mexico has been silent for a week straight or more

2009-06-18T04:25:00.000-07:00

You'll be suprised on how much the gulf of mexico has been spotless. That's because an area of high pressure is over the gulf, which causes more shear because it's driving the winds downward in the carribean and the gulf of the bahamas, causing for more wind shear. More shear means less percentage of strengh. The storm has then nothing to do but two words: final; glory; and the storm peters out.

Wave expected to not develop

2009-06-08T06:01:00.001-07:00

Cbs 8, the wave least expected to develop has good inflow, good outflow, and might turn into TD two, and may be Ana in the next 72 hours. The reason it won't turn into TD one then Ana, is because TD one already happened, but this is a rare phenomeon to have a tropical depression be the first one in the season, and yet it didn't turn into the "A" storm. Has that ever happened in the past in the atlantic? It happened in the pacific, with Tropical depression Agaton 2006, but that was an A storm to the Phillipines. Please post a comment about any of those storms.

I expect it not to develop, but that's just an expectation. The reason for not expecting it to develop is the wind shear, and the low vorticity of this storm.

And one more thing, when a hurricane comes up, I'm going to work so hard for Waha. I'll update this site six times every hurricane day until late August, but then I'll work nighttime.

Invest 92

2009-06-03T04:43:00.001-07:00

Really? They expect that to be a subtropical storm, which I don't think would be a good idea. There's not enough clouds, sea surface temp, and winds and most importantly too much latitude. Waha predicts this will not form into anything more than another depression.

compacted storm photos

2009-05-30T10:57:00.000-07:00

This is a very tiny storm that I found, but it is also strong for it's size; 10 knots. It will likely strengthen, but will remain too small to notify other people about it's strength, and how it would probably will strengthen to hurricane strength unless wind shear develops. If it does, it will rip the infant storm apart immediately because of it's size.