I downloaded a picture from Noaa's RGB loop. as you can see right next to their symbol, there is a tropical wave that is just waiting to be noticed. This tropical wave is in favorable conditions for tropical development. This wave is expected to try to turn into td2, maybe it will, maybe it will not. If it does develop into an invest,
I give the wave a 70% chance of maximum sustained winds depression strength, 24% chance tropical storm strength, 5% chance of sustained winds at hurricane strength, catgory 1, and category two or higher 1% chance.
This won't fail to develop. The tropical wave is in such favorable conditions.