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Monday, June 22, 2009

Cbs 11 forms, African dust storm

That time of year is back; summer. For most kids, it is like a dream, but for meteorologists, it is the beginning of a nightmare. Storms start to brew, and there's a chance of people getting killed by hurricanes.
That won't stop us (even though cbs 11 has now formed. Because of land breezes during the night, the southern gulf of mexico has gone from quiet, to containing a system that looks like it's already a hurricane in just three hours. Even though, it still is not forecast to strengthen. There is a lot of wind shear. Right now, there is only an 11% chance it will develop into a depression, of that, 60% chance of Ana from this, and virtually no chance of a hurricane.
Cbs 10 is still brewing, though. However, it will have some time to dissipate.
Now, for the report on this dust storm. It's huge, and it will probably travel into spain.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Cbs 10 + equation for Averaged Direction Strength (ADS)

There is an area of disturbed weather called CBS 10, which has a high chance; 60-70% that it will develop into a tropical depression.

However, if you look at QuikSCAT data, you will notice it doesn't look like a storm; just a bunch of lines with the top stronger than the bottom. The reason to this is simply because the storm is moving, not stationary. It's simple to figure out it's spin: the storm's strong end is 35 knots, weak end 10 knots, so if both ends were to be 35, weak end the other way, it would be 35. Take away ten from one end, and that brings it down five knots. Since 35 and -10 are 45 away from each other, that takes off 22.5 knots. 35-22.5=12.5, and you have it's strength. To find out the direction, well, it's 22.5.

Or, in other words:

35=s -10=w 45=d 22.5=D 12.5=e

s-w=d d/2=D s-D=e. Man I hate summer math! This is called the ADS equation.

The bottom line is Cbs 10 has a current strength of 12.5 knots, under shear of about 6 knots. It is under warm water of 30 degrees celsius, which is also 86 degrees celsius in, which is rather a warm eddy of oceanwater, so in the next 72 to 96 hours, development is expected. But at this time, it's not threatening land.

atlantic quiet, the gulf of mexico has been silent for a week straight or more

You'll be suprised on how much the gulf of mexico has been spotless. That's because an area of high pressure is over the gulf, which causes more shear because it's driving the winds downward in the carribean and the gulf of the bahamas, causing for more wind shear. More shear means less percentage of strengh. The storm has then nothing to do but two words: final; glory; and the storm peters out.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Wave expected to not develop

Cbs 8, the wave least expected to develop has good inflow, good outflow, and might turn into TD two, and may be Ana in the next 72 hours. The reason it won't turn into TD one then Ana, is because TD one already happened, but this is a rare phenomeon to have a tropical depression be the first one in the season, and yet it didn't turn into the "A" storm. Has that ever happened in the past in the atlantic? It happened in the pacific, with Tropical depression Agaton 2006, but that was an A storm to the Phillipines. Please post a comment about any of those storms.
I expect it not to develop, but that's just an expectation. The reason for not expecting it to develop is the wind shear, and the low vorticity of this storm.
And one more thing, when a hurricane comes up, I'm going to work so hard for Waha. I'll update this site six times every hurricane day until late August, but then I'll work nighttime.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Invest 92

Really? They expect that to be a subtropical storm, which I don't think would be a good idea. There's not enough clouds, sea surface temp, and winds and most importantly too much latitude. Waha predicts this will not form into anything more than another depression.