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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Abrew is "running" away

so yeah,...this is the image of Abrew. Abrew is getting picked up by the jetstream, and is still a tropical storm, it's just minimal.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Abrew made the transition

to a tropical cyclone this morning, and did it in bold style. This Ascat image (click to enlarge) reveals that the winds from Abrew are now closed completely, and the wind speed is still 45 mph. It is now moving away from Brazil, and from warm waters, so Abrew isn't going to be much longer.

Here's an update; NOAA has just named this storm 2 days ago as Tropical Storm 90SL. They've come up with their own naming scheme; to name the storm after the invest prior to the storm, and then remove the Q prefix (I thought it was X.) and put on SL at the back. That's strange...

Abrew set a record by the way... the first storm to have an invest prior to it with a Q, for the South Atlantic, because Q is a letter we don't usually use, as the South atlantic does not usually make tropical storms. It makes sense.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Subtropical Cyclone Abrew

I can't believe it! There is a subtropical cyclone in the south atlantic that's forecast to strengthen to tropical status in a couple of hours. This storm is just a subtropical depression, but the naming scheme for this basin is to give names to all storms over 29 mph. The wind speed of this storm is 35 mph, so what would be a storm in the north atlantic of that speeed being a tropical/subtropical depression, is what would be a tropical/subtropical storm in the South Atlantic. Anyway, Abrew looks like it's going to become a tropical storm, but not a hurricane. Also, I am worried about fire damage from this storm. Subtropical Storm Andrea caused a ton of fire damage when it was close to land so that's why south Brazillians should stay alert. I will give more updates later.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Invests 90X and 91X

Another invest has formed, so we have two things to watch out for. Let's go to 90X first, the storm of yesterday. It has surprisingly strengthened to having a 30% chance of cyclone formation. The jetstream...suddenly yet we have something else! Now there is invest 91X, which formed from an upper level low, and has joined with the other center of circulation (see yesterday's latest post) to actually have high odds of forming; a 50% chance.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

90X is weakening

I really think this storm is weakening. Sometime ago I found the center of circulation offset from the Invest. There is still some chance of development, but not that much. At best, it becomes a subtropical storm. As for the rest of the storm, it doesn't look like conditions are favorable but I suggested that there might be another center of circulation...okay I just looked at Ascat and as it turns out, there is. It's near 22 south 36 west, and it's not completely closed but it is getting there. It has maximum winds of 25 knots, and although under a moist enviornment with very warm waters, the wind shear is just too much for development. I'd take my guess back about the "Abrew" thing. I don't think there will be that much development. I will look at it by morning, but I'm sure there's just nothing to look at. Invest 90X is no longer,...but I'll update tomorrow just in case.

90X update

...advisory #4 of Invest 90X...
...I've skewd the image a little from the image of this one eumetstat weather picture. It makes it a little more to scale. It even looks like a tropical storm doing this, even though it isn't yet, yet as in could be. The red circle shows the center of circulation while the blue arrows show the upper level winds. I have to say, it is getting a little bit more organized, although the percent chance of cyclone formation dropped a percent because of the windshear. (it's going a tiny bit southsoutheast at the moment, though it looks like a lot) It is starting to form into a tropical cyclone, it is a tad bit away from being warm cored. Right now, this is not a threat to any land, but cyclones in the south atlantic are rare, only seven happening in history, the latest being "uruguay" in January 2009 (i missed it.). There is an upper level just southwest of 90X, though, that doesn't agree with it. I'm guessing it's bringing a bit of shear in the area, but that doesn't prevent 90X from forming. It certaintly wasn't the case for Zeta, in 2005-2006, where the tropical storm thrived even in windshear of twenty five knots! Even more astonishing was Zeta was over waters so cold, I would walk away from my pool if it was that cold. It was...72 degrees?... whatever, it was cold. But if the precursor to TS Zeta could do it, then so should Invest 90-X. It's only over thirteen knots of windshear and over 85 degree waters.

This will be TD One X

This storm has surprised me. It has gone from totally unorganized to looking like future Tropical storm Abrew. I have to say I'm baffled, and in the next 48 hrs, this storm has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone...
...stay tuned for more updates on 90X...

Saturday, March 6, 2010


This is surprising; 90x now has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm! The jetstream, shown in blue, traveled downward south, and 90x north, so there's less wind shear now, there's no dust, it's over plenty of warm water, yep... this is the first time I use my South Atlantic Naming list...
...further updates will come later in the evening, sayonara until then, stay tuned...

Invest 90-X

It has been forecasted that there is a tropical disturbance in the south atlantic right now. I don't have that good imagery available to track 90X, so I am stuck with nothing. I plan to get an image onto Google Earth, I mean the loop, of this storm so I can track it and put the video on Youtube if it turns into a tropical depression. It will be on the channel EpicAbrewFail, the exact same one as I mentioned with Epic Fail (well, actually, I had two blogs, we're the same person,). It has a lot of cubing videos there, too.

As with the prefix "X" for south atlantic storms, I didn't come up with that.

90X has been given a low (<30%)>