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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Cbs 10 + equation for Averaged Direction Strength (ADS)

There is an area of disturbed weather called CBS 10, which has a high chance; 60-70% that it will develop into a tropical depression.

However, if you look at QuikSCAT data, you will notice it doesn't look like a storm; just a bunch of lines with the top stronger than the bottom. The reason to this is simply because the storm is moving, not stationary. It's simple to figure out it's spin: the storm's strong end is 35 knots, weak end 10 knots, so if both ends were to be 35, weak end the other way, it would be 35. Take away ten from one end, and that brings it down five knots. Since 35 and -10 are 45 away from each other, that takes off 22.5 knots. 35-22.5=12.5, and you have it's strength. To find out the direction, well, it's 22.5.

Or, in other words:

35=s -10=w 45=d 22.5=D 12.5=e

s-w=d d/2=D s-D=e. Man I hate summer math! This is called the ADS equation.

The bottom line is Cbs 10 has a current strength of 12.5 knots, under shear of about 6 knots. It is under warm water of 30 degrees celsius, which is also 86 degrees celsius in, which is rather a warm eddy of oceanwater, so in the next 72 to 96 hours, development is expected. But at this time, it's not threatening land.

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