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Tuesday, July 21, 2009

98L forms, 97L still here

In this picture, it's easy to pick out the two disturbances, but which one is which? 97 is the bottom one, and the other wave, the one near the bahamas, is 98. Both are disorganized as it appears, but strangely, 97 has been through heavy shear and it isn't gone yet. In fact, more than half of the computer models say this will go on for more than two days.

But for 98, it just formed hours ago and I think despite it's age, will actually have the chance to strengthen to a tropical storm in three days or more. There is a 45% chance of this.

Back to 97, I have been watching it since it came off africa, but didn't post anything about it, spite the fact that it wasn't an invest, coupled with the fact that waves at this time of year peter out in the blink of an eye. I think this disturbance will not have the strength to upgrade to a tropical depression because of being overland for the next day, and three days later (when it's in less wind shear), it will probably have enough things needed to develop into a tropical depression. However, if this turns into a tropical storm I will be completely surprised.

But here's the thing, if Ana forms out of one of these storms, there definiteley won't be Bill, too.

I'll post again this evening.

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