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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Ana is on the way

Well, here it is; TD Two. Right now it's wind speed is 30 mph, traveling west. In my opinion, I think this storm could go many different ways. The best chance track it will take would probably be in this picture. I think over time, it will be a TS on the 2am advisory Wednesday, and then take a slight recurve to westnorthwest. Thursday on the 8 am advisory, we could see a hurricane. Friday at that same time, it will possibly be a category 2 hurricane, and start to track due west. 2am advisory on Saturday, Category three, and starts to take baby steps to the north with it's west track. At 8pm, it will probably weaken to a category 2 on Sunday. At 8am Monday, it will get downgraded to a Category 1, 2am Tuesday, it starts to head Northeast as it becomes a tropical storm. At 2am Wednesday, it will become a tropical depression, and become extratropical at 8pm that same day.
If this prediction is wrong, then it could go more north, or more south. Slightly north and it might slam Bermuda as a strong category 2. Keep in mind that about five days ago in the northwest pacific, a typhoon called Morakot totally crapped taiwan, and it was a category 2. So nobody should underestimate hurricanes; especially those of cat.2 or higher.
Slightly south, and Northeast coastal states (includes Newfoundland, New brunswick, Maine, New hampshire, any east coastal state more north than the Carolinas) could be left with a maximal storm or a minimal hurricane. Remember, Agnes was a tropical storm that hit the Northeast coastal states, and not only they, but Penn state (Pennsylvania) as well. Agnes did tremendous damage.
A lot south, and this storm won't be a cat 3 at maximum, but category 4 or 5 because of very warm waters. Remember Floyd, Hugo, and Andrew? They we're all monster hurricanes that hit the Southern coastal states (includes East Florida, Georgia, SCarolina and NCarolina). Andrew may have gone into the Gulf of Mexico and affected Louisiana, but the other two hurricanes that I mentioned would sound like what future Ana could do if it significantly goes more south than forecasted.
I'll keep you posted on TD Two, at 2pm.

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